Energy & climate · live repo
Live repoReal dataClimate Transition Risk Intelligence Platform
Independent research · real Azure production deployment
View the repo →What this is
Country-level decarbonisation and transition-risk analytics on public data (Our World in Data, World Bank), with a real Azure production deployment and a published, honestly-undershot coverage finding.
Metrics
Backtest reproduction
0.0262 MAE
vs documented scratch finding 0.0263
Interval coverage (honesty finding)
76.3% measured
vs 90% target, 114 splits
Energy-feature gate
p ≤ 0.10, robust at ±10/20/30% weight perturbation
Reproducibility (v1.0.0)
287 Python tests + 31 frontend tests, independently re-run clean-checkout
Azure footprint
8 resources, independently confirmed via Azure MCP
Stack
Provenance
Solo-authored, public, CI-green. A real Azure production deployment (Terraform-managed, least-privilege managed identities, weekly schedule) runs the full pipeline end to end against live storage. The 76.3% interval-coverage figure is reported as an open undercoverage finding, not tuned away, in the same style as the negative results elsewhere in this portfolio.
What I would not claim
- a completed Power BI/PBIX native report (superseded by the live React/TypeScript dashboard)
- real-time, streaming or low-latency serving
- regime-aware or recency-weighted forecasting in production (evaluated, explicitly not promoted)
- external or paying customers
- unqualified "production-grade"
Does it earn the deployment?
A rolling-origin backtest reproduction, the coverage shortfall published rather than tuned away, and the pre-registered gate an energy feature had to clear before it reached production.
6 origins (2010–2022), 19 G20 countries. The bootstrap model's median absolute error closely reproduces a documented scratch finding; its interval coverage does not — and that miss is reported, not tuned away.
76.3%
measured, across 114 splits
90%
target
90% prediction-interval coverage measured at 76.3% across 114 splits — an open undercoverage finding, published as-is.
Data provenance. Committed backtest and gate outputs from climate-transition-risk-platform, generated into data/climate.json. Public data (Our World in Data, World Bank). Real Azure production deployment, independently verified.