Residual-Load Forecasting & Price Curves

Market Analyst · E.ON Energy Markets · 2025

What this is

Rebuilt hourly power forecasting around a residual-load framework (demand net of wind and solar), benchmarked against the previous demand-based methodology and monitored for drift in production.

Metrics

Forward curve

+15% far / +9.7% near

vs previous methodology

Residual RMSE

~0.3 to 0.5 GWh/h improvement

Christmas fix

RMSE -18% (~0.35 GWh/h)

Signal

~0.84 residual-demand/price correlation

Stack

Azure ML StudioAzure DevOpsPythonPower BIDrift detectionTime-series

What I would not claim

Nothing beyond what is listed above.

Explore the deltas

The same before/after figures, interactive. Toggle between the three roles.

Residual RMSE improved ~0.3 to 0.5 GWh/h; Christmas fix ~0.35 GWh/h. Correlation ~0.84.