Energy markets · production
ProfessionalReal dataResidual-Load Forecasting & Price Curves
Quantitative Market Analyst · E.ON Energy Markets · 2025
What this is
Rebuilt hourly power forecasting around a residual-load framework (demand net of wind and solar), benchmarked against the previous demand-based methodology and monitored for drift in production.
Metrics
Forward curve
+15% far / +9.7% near
vs previous methodology
Christmas fix
RMSE -18%
vs pre-fix
Signal
Strong residual-demand/price relationship
Stack
Provenance
Professional work at E.ON Energy Markets. Methodology and relative improvements only: no E.ON data, code, models, absolute error figures or commercially sensitive parameters are published here.
What I would not claim
- No absolute forecast error, volume or price figures are disclosed.
- Improvements are relative to an internal baseline that is deliberately not characterised.
- No E.ON code, data or model artefacts are shared; none of this work is reproducible from this site.
Explore the deltas
The same before/after figures, interactive. Toggle between the three roles.
Residual-load framework improved forward-curve accuracy on both near and far seasons; the Christmas-period fix followed a holiday-specific error diagnosis. Relative improvements only, against an internal baseline.