Retail Growth Intelligence — Uplift Modelling

Independent research · synthetic data

What this is

A genuine two-stage X-learner for campaign uplift with control-arm up-weighting and per-campaign propensity blending. Committed outputs, unlike most of the portfolio.

Metrics

Overall ATE

0.0444

Top decile

0.0754 (~1.7x average)

Qini-like area

744.8

Rank corr.

Spearman 0.406

Stack

X-learnerLightGBMDuckDBQini / uplift decilesPCA segmentation

Provenance

Synthetic data throughout. Figures demonstrate method, not a measured commercial outcome.

What I would not claim

Nothing beyond what is listed above.

Explore the uplift

Observed uplift per predicted decile and the Qini curve from the X-learner. Slide to target the top K% of customers and see the captured incremental response recompute.

+0.0444

Overall ATE

response-rate lift

+0.0754

Top decile

~1.7x the average

744.8

Qini area

vs random targeting

0.406

Spearman rank

predicted vs observed

Observed uplift by decile

Percentage-point lift in response rate, treatment vs control, within each predicted decile.

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Qini curve

Cumulative incremental responders captured (pink) against random targeting (cyan).

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Target the top 20% of customers≈ 4,104 of 20,519 customers

31.1%

of total incremental response captured

236

incremental responders (model units)

1.55x

the random-targeting baseline

Observed uplift and cumulative captured responders per predicted decile
Decile	Customers	Observed uplift (pp)	Cumulative captured responders
1	2,052	7.54	126
2	2,052	6.36	236
3	2,052	4.83	318
4	2,052	1.47	344
5	2,052	2.30	384
6	2,051	5.66	481
7	2,052	5.32	574
8	2,052	5.40	667
9	2,052	3.03	717
10	2,052	2.64	760

Synthetic retail data; demonstrates method, not a measured commercial outcome. The Qini series is derived from committed per-decile counts; headline figures are read straight from the committed model-comparison output.

Data provenance. Synthetic retail data; demonstrates method, not a measured commercial outcome. Per-decile rows and headline figures come from committed retail-intelligence outputs (data/uplift-deciles.json).